What Happens next?

What Happens Next

Playable Covid-19 Epidemiology Simulator
Give it a try!

Try your hand at this! For 25 years every student that came through my Community Health course or Applied Epidemiology seminar got a free app called EpiInfo, to both simulate epidemics and to help tease out the causes and variables. Our field practicums used it in N. Iraq, Yemen, Cambodia and Bolivia. In class, we usually started with simulating food poisoning at church picnics and would end up with a full cholera epidemic, but the linked animations are a pretty good summary and hands-on Epi simulator for what is affecting our current pandemic. For those interested play around with the intermittent lock-downs. Also, if really interested, listen to the “This Week in Virology” podcast discuss a just published simulation of how schools could rotate face-to-face attendance and online learning to maximize protection from spreading the virus between school to home.

Playable Simulation
https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0lsE0ljwRZZ_Z7vXeOwaDtVI33HKLGgkUS0QQ8Ev6lLre6iy0UGJJfpYUGi

1st link is the podcast. 2nd link is the simulatorAudio/Video Podcast https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-653/

Stepping into Silence – Our family’s focus this fall on Japan

Our family has  been reading a profound historical novel
from Japan: Silence, by Shūsaku Endō.

Endo's book: Silence has led to many family discussions this fall.

At the Wheaton College parent orientation Benjamin  and I attended in August  the entire freshman class was reading Silence as part of Wheaton’s new Christ-at-the-Core curriculum and they encouraged parents to read it as well. He and I were also able to attend the “Stepping into Silence” exhibit about the book at their Billy Graham Center. benexhibit

fumie2
These are real 400 year old fumi-e from the Wheaton Silence exhibit, worn smooth by the many forced to trample on them

 

 

 

 

fumie1

Shūsaku Endō’s novel Silence centers on a young 17th century Jesuit priest who’s sent to Japan to investigate whether or not his mentor has committed apostasy. What Rodrigues, the young Jesuit, learns is the truth of the Kakure Kirishitan (Hidden Christians) who are undergoing 40 years of intense persecution. To root them out, officials take anyone suspected of being a believer out in front of their village where they are forced to trample on a fumi-e (a bronze image of Christ) as a way of not only renouncing their faith but shaming them so that others will not believe. Those who refuse are imprisoned or killed by anazuri (hanging upside down in a toilet pit and being slowly bled to death).     

For Rodrigues, his illusion of the glory of martyrdom is stripped away as he witnesses this and learns that Ferreira, his mentor, and other priests, were told to either renounce their faith or continue to watch as believers in their congregations were tortured to death before them. The novel wrestles with doubt, shame, betrayal, and traumas’ effects on faith. 

This was one of those great books that makes you ask, “Would I do that? Would I renounce my faith in Christ to end the torture and suffering of others?”  …questions that stay with me and make me look at my own heart…to face the darkness of my own doubts. 

passion
Passion by Fujimura

fugimura
Makoto Fujimura, currently Director of Fuller Seminary’s Brehm Center

The Stepping into Silence exhibit included a number of wonderful paintings inspired by Endo’s book by the renowned artist Makoto Fujimura (Silence & Beauty). So often still, we hear that “to doubt is to sin” yet Fufimua highlights how, Endo’s Silence exposes the flaw in this line of thinking. “It does not express faith in God but instead faith in clarity and our lust for certainty.”  “Faith can be rational, but only after a deeper  journey toward mystery and transcendence.” Most of us do not like to sit with our doubts. When faced with multiple horrible choices, we want clarity.  

Sacrificial grace by Fujimura
Sacrificial grace by Fujimura

In the 16th century Christianity had grown to over 100,000 believers in the Urakami District of Nagasaki Japan when it was banned and believers were hunted and persecuted. The survivors of the persecution secretly maintained their beliefs for 250 years before the ban was lifted in the 19th century. The church then had grown to over 15,000, when on Sunday August 9, 1945 the second atomic bomb at the end of WWII, detonated 550 yards above their church killing 10,000 of the parishioners. Some things are hard to understand.

Last week 11 Syrian missionaries who work in conjunction with ChristianAid Mission, were killed by crucifixion or beheading, in front of their team leader near Alepo. Well over 300,000 Iraqi and Syrian Christians have been killed in the past three years. Andrew White, the last Anglican Vicar in Iraq, told the BBC recently that Christianity is about to disappear in Iraq and Syria. But as the Kakure Kirishitan, the hidden Christians, of Nagasaki have shown, though God may at times seem silent, he is present with us.

Our nation faces choices this fall I fear we will be held accountable for, both individually and as a nation. Are we afraid of wandering in the wilderness? Is my faith in God or is it but faith in certainty. God promises to be with us even in the silence of our doubts, and (spoiler alert) ultimately, He is not silent. 

Unless otherwise noted, all images are by Allan Robbins

Ebola vaccine success: Race is now on to protect those at risk

Ebola vaccine success:
Race is now on to protect those at risk
Ebola vaccine success: Race is now on to protect those at risk

 

A vaccine can now protect against Ebola (Image: Cellou BinaniI/AFP/Getty Images)A vaccine for Ebola produced in just one year instead of the usual decade provides 100-per-cent protection against the disease. Preparations are already under way to make it available to healthcare workers and families wherever the virus remains at large.

“This is a very good day,” says Seth Berkley, chief executive of the GAVI Alliance, the global organisation that has earmarked $390 million to extend availability of the VSV-ZEBOV vaccine beyond Guinea, the country where it has been successfully tested on more than 7500 people.

The epidemic is now largely under control, but there have been 28,000 cases leading to 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. But cases are still coming to light, and the virus is still at large, lurking in the body fluids of survivors for as long as 6 months.

“All affected countries should immediately start and multiply ring vaccinations to break chains of transmission and vaccinate all frontline workers to protect them,” says Bertrand Draguez, medical director of relief organisation Médecins Sans Frontières.

The rapid availability of a vaccine would be a huge boost for citizens of those three countries and for all the health workers still operating in them to deal with new cases.

Emergency authorisation

Berkley says that the GAVI Alliance has already earmarked “considerable” funds that could make this roll out possible, and that discussions are under way with the governments of affected countries, the funders of the clinical trials, the manufacturer of the vaccine and the World Health Organization to decide how to move forward as fast as possible.

Although the trial isn’t yet over, the WHO could theoretically issue an Emergency Use Authorisation before it ends. This would enable the vaccine to be legally deployed where needed.

“When there’s a WHO recommendation, we will be willing to purchase and stockpile the vaccine until we get regulatory authorisation from individual governments,” Berkley says.

The trial is still in progress, but evidence that the vaccine works arose by studying how well the vaccine protected health workers and family members associated with new cases of Ebola. They wanted to see how well this strategy of “ring vaccination” – immunising those people in closest contact with any new cases – protected those exposed.

Rather than vaccinating only half the participants, and risking the lives of others by giving them a dummy vaccine, the researchers gave half the participants the vaccine immediately after they had contact with a newly diagnosed case, while the other half received it three weeks later.

After three months, the result was resounding. No instant recipients were infected, but 16 of those receiving the vaccine three weeks later were. “This is an extremely promising development,” said Margaret Chan, director-general of the WHO. The results at three months were so impressive that all subsequent participants have since been receiving the vaccine immediately.

Hard to store

Developed initially by the Public Health Agency of Canada, the vaccine is a live but harmless virus called vesicular stomatitis virus, which normally infects animals, engineered to contain a key fragment from the Ebola virus. The immune systems of recipients make antibodies that prime for defence against the real virus.

The race is now on to provide it wherever possible, pending negotiations between all the parties involved. “We can say that Guinea is now taken care of, but what happens in Sierra Leone and Liberia, and other countries where there are outbreaks such as Mali and Uganda,” says Berkley. “We need some type of procedure to say it’s OK to use it in these other settings.”

Berkley said that the vaccine is not perfect. It must be stored at -80 °C, which is not easy to guarantee in tropical countries. It also may not protect against all strains of Ebola. Nor is it yet established how long immunity lasts.

But other trials of vaccines against ebola are under way, says Margaret Harris of the WHO. In Liberia, the VSV-ZEBOV vaccine is being trialled head-to-head against a rival vaccine produced by Glaxo-Smith Kline, and a vaccine developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, is being tested in Sierra Leone.

Harris said that cases are still coming to light, but they are waning in number. “We’ve had a very encouraging week, and for the first time we’ve seen a column of zeros where there are usually new cases.”

Journal reference: The Lancet, DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61117-5

2015

benallanweatonlydiakomonoOur family has had a Japanese emphasis this year. We are  welcoming two Japanese exchange students to our home last week of October. Both Benjamin and Lydia took 3 years of lydiajapanJapanese in High School.  Lydia spent 3 weeks in June as a Pacific & Asian Affairs Council exchange student silence“ambassador” in Japan this past summer. Lastly, we’ve been reading a profound historical novel from Japan: Silence, by Shūsaku Endō, a required reading at Wheaton College. 

At the Wheaton College parent orientation Benjamin and I attended this August as he began his engineering studies there, the entire freshman class was reading Silence as a core text for Wheaton’s new  Christ at the Core curriculum and they encouraged parents to read it as well. He and I were also able to attend the “Stepping into Silence” exhibit at their Billy Graham Center. 

Shūsaku Endō‘s novel Silence centers on a young 17th century Jesuit who’s sent to Japan to investigate whether or not his mentor has committed apostasy. What Rodrigues, the young Jesuit, learns is the truth of the Kakure Kirishitan (Hidden Christians) who are undergoing 40 years of intense persecution. To root them out officials take anyone suspected of being a believer out in front of their village where they are forced to trample on a fumi-e (a bronze image of Christ) as a way of not only renouncing their faith but shaming them so that others will not believe. Those who refuse are imprisoned or killed by anazuri (hanging upside down in a toilet pit and being slowly bled to death).     

These are real 400 year old fumi-e
from the Wheaton Silence exhibit,
worn smooth by the many
forced to trample on them.

The illusion of the glory of martyrdom is stripped from Rodrigues as he witnesses this and learns that Ferreira, his mentor, and other priests were told to either renounce their faith or watch as believers in their congregations are tortured and killed before them. The novel wrestles with doubt, shame, betrayal, and traumas’ effects on faith. 

This was one of those great books that makes one ask, “Would I do that? Would I renounce my faith in Christ to end the torture and suffering of others?”  …questions that stay with you long after reading the book. The more I’ve ruminated on the painful, difficult questions the more I’ve had to look at my own heart…to face the darkness of my own doubts. So often still, we hear that to doubt is to sin. 
passionfugimuraThe Stepping into Silence exhibit included a number of wonderful paintings inspired by Endo’s book by the renowned artist Makoto Fujimura (Silence & Beauty), who had written that for him the book highlighted that our faith was , the artist had written that In Fujimura’s meditation on Endo’s sacraficialgracemasterpiece, he writes how Endo exposes the flaw in this line of thinking. “It does not express faith in God but instead  faith in clarity and our lust for certainty.”  “Faith can be rational, but only after a deeper  journey toward mystery and transcendence.” Most of us do not like to sit with our doubts. When faced with multiple horrible choices, we want clarity.  

While Christianity had grown to over 100,000 believers in the Urakami District of Nagasaki Japan in the 16th century when it was banned, the few survivors of the persecution secretly maintained their beliefs for 250 years before the ban was lifted in the 19th century. The church then had grown to over 15,000, when on Sunday August 9, 1945 the second atomic bomb detonated 550 yards above their church killing 10,000 of the parishioners. Some things are hard to understand.

Last week 11 Syrian missionaries who work in conjunction with  Christian Aid Mission, were killed by crucifixion or beheading, in front of their team leader near Alepo.  Well over 300,000 Iraqi and Syrian Christians have been killed in the past three years. Andrew White, the last Anglican vicar in Iraq, told the BBC recently that Christianity is about to disappear in Iraq and Syria. But as the Kakure Kirishitan, the hidden Christians, of Nagasaki have shown, though God may at times seem silent, he is present with us.

Our nation faces choices this fall I fear we will be held accountable for, both individually and as a nation. Are we afraid of wandering in the wilderness? God promises to be with us even there. 

So what are we working on this Fall?

First and foremost, knowing God more and more and walking with Him day by day.   We have a big fall quarter with over 500 students. Allan works with Discipleship Training School students each day and will teach in the Introduction to Primary Heatlh Care class which is running next door at YWAM-Ships. He’s also helping with the renovations of the campus Children’s Ark Park.  In June, he traveled to Nepal for two weeks with a campus staff team, helping three YWAM bases with assessment and site planning for their ministries. He then joined another Kona staff to lead a week-long Water For Life workshop in Myanmar which was a great success.  Based on many of the things identified in their last trip, he will return to Nepal with the Kona team in November to run a series of workshops in Kathmandu, Pokera and Dehran Nepal for longterm YWAM staff there.

Dee has been working with the Waia’ha Int’l. Christian School for staff kids on the UofN campus and serves on their leadership team. She enjoys teaching a math class for 1st and 2nd graders as well as a high school math class. She especially enjoys helping them connect their mathematics with God’s nature & character. 

tabithaTabitha worked with her youth group this summer on their Mission On The Move, serving five churches around the island for a week and a half, landscaping, painting and running VBCs. She hatched five chickens over the summer which we hope will soon be laying eggs.

 

deeDee and I usually volunteer each Tuesday morning with the campus farm to harvest 500 heads of lettuce for the campus kitchen. The campus Life Enabling Science & Technology (LETS) team, which we’re part of, is growing half hydroponically-fertilized by fish, and half  using Korean natural farming methods and  are studying how they compare. But we’ve already been sharing both technologies with YWAM staff in Nepal, where they just endured a several month food and fuel embargo from their main trading partner India, after their nation passed a constitution that says they are no longer exclusively a Buddhist nation. Everyone there understands the need for food security. 

Dee still walks with me most days on my 1000 mile challenge. I just passed 750 miles and have 2 1/2 months to go; and at 25 cents per mile, have raised $200 towards eradicating malaria.

Allan’s Nepal and Myanmar Trip

21 days

23,000 miles

80 hours of travel time

50 hours on 15 flights plus

30 hours of airport layovers plus

29 hours on 7 busses plus

75 miles walking

10 site visits in 4 states in 2 countries: Nepal & Myanmar 

12 workshops in 3 locations

2 site plans initiated

36 students / participants

Topics:

Participative planning for growth, Preliminary site planning, raising chickens, Sustainable agriculture & aquaponics, Natural farming methods & food security, Water filtration & storage-building: Slow Sand Filters, Rain catchment tanks, Water-sealed latrines, Hydraulic Ram Pumps, Clay Stoves & Interlocking Compressed Earth Bricks,

Sawyer water filter use, and Biblical Worldview

Water for Fanning Atoll

Water For Life &  Fanning Atoll
A collaborationwater10

As part of YWAM’s Water For Life initiative, Allan often teaches practical ways to get clean drinking water in our Discipleship Training School’s and for various teams heading to the field. However, in 2005 Allan helped lead a small Water-For-Life team to our next nearest neighbor in the Pacific, Fanning Atoll, 900 miles south of us in the Republic of Kiribati. Continue reading “Water for Fanning Atoll”

Facts for Life

Facts For Life

FFLThe most concise, understandable, usable advice on Safe Motherhood, Breastfeeding, Child Development, Nutrition & Growth, Immunization, Diarrhea, Malaria, HIV/AIDS, Respiratory Infections, Injury Prevention and Disasters & Emergencies.

Since it was first published in 1989, Facts for Life has become one of the world’s most popular books, with more than 15 million copies in use in 215 languages in 200 countries. The book is co-published by UNICEF, WHO, UNESCO, UNFPA, UNDP, UNAIDS, WFP and the World Bank.

FFL4edThis revised 4th edition of Facts for Life has updated information on the major causes of childhood illnesses and death, including HIV/AIDS, Emergencies and Accidents.

DOWNLOAD THE FACTS FOR LIFE  BOOK
AS A 155 PAGE PDF FILE
Facts For Life 4th Ed. Continue reading “Facts for Life”